It's definitely not MCU 616. I have a feeling that was the initial plan though since they explicitly announced it as his MCU origin story. I assume that has changed in the meantime.
Yeah, I remember them announcing it as the MCU Spider-Man’s story pre-Civil War, but even with Endgame/What If/Loki playing around with multiple timelines, it never occurred to me that this could be a variant of Tom Holland’s Peter Parker from an alternate timeline within the MCU.
We’ve since become more aware of how multiple timelines intersect with
Multiverse of Madness showing multiple timelines
within the MCU and No Way Home showing us a crossover with timelines
outside the MCU. So I guess it
could still be MCU but, like you say, not MCU 616.
On the one hand, it gives the show and movies more freedom to do their own things, which I think is ideal personally. On the other hand, people were expecting to see more of Tom Holland’s Peter Parker, especially those still upset about not enough Uncle Ben.
Funny enough, it reminds me of FF7 Remake, where my default presumption is that stuff is the same as the original until it explicitly isn’t. Maybe whatever scenarios in the show don’t conflict with the movies, I can headcanon them as also having occurred to Tom’s Peter?