Mythril Mines

[Flintlock]

Starling, welcome to the game! As Doran said, you and Claymore need one more person if you're to start mining today, but if you don't manage that, four more people will be available to join you tomorrow.

Jason, have I got this right? Today (day 7): dig; day 8: escape; day 9: join a new party if possible.

 

[Jason Tandro]

Starling, welcome to the game! As Doran said, you and Claymore need one more person if you're to start mining today, but if you don't manage that, four more people will be available to join you tomorrow.

Jason, have I got this right? Today (day 7): dig; day 8: escape; day 9: join a new party if possible.

Correct!

 

[Obsidian Fire]

You know this means everyone else in the group is going to be doing the same thing now...

 

[Flintlock]

Well, if you and Octo dig on the day Jason escapes, you'll only have an extra 10% chance of KO (due to the Turks), but if your dig succeeds, you'll get ~50% more Mythril each because you'll only have to split it two ways. How much do you want to gamble?

 

[Jason Tandro]

Strategically speaking, as far as I understand the game, your choice here works something like this:

20% chance of KO and a huge upturn in the Mythril Shard intake or escaping along with me at the same time and none of us have an advantage over the other.

The former makes more sense if you goal is strong advantage, but the risk is far greater. I mean theoretically even risking just one more day could net you higher reward. Of course, you could also lose everything.

I'm playing a conservative game in the hopes that it'll pay off in the long run, doesn't necessarily mean you all have to do the same.

But hey, if that means the group gets to stay together, that's cool too!

 

[Starling]

I guess I'll be waiting for Jason and possibly others then.

 

[Kuroto]

But Jason you do realise that most likely you're going to be waiting for the rest of your team to return to dig again? Because unless the situation is going to change somehow then I'm pretty sure that the rest of the returners are going to join the other team tomorrow and leave you behind.

Or maybe you want your team to think that you're leaving tomorrow when you're really leaving already today...

I wouldn't trust Jason.

 

[Octo]

I'm digging again!

 

[Keveh Kins]

I'm confused.

Who's going where?

And why must they go?

It's Claymore's to blame for all this defection talk! >____>

 

[Flintlock]

DAY 7​

Bulletin board: Kuroto, Doran Martell, Clement Rage and Keveh Kins are in the infirmary. Claymore and Starling attempted to form a new mining party but were one member short, so it looks like there'll be a lot of you heading into the mines tomorrow.

Note: everyone who says they want to enter tomorrow will be put in one party, so if you want to split up, at least three of you will have to wait an extra day. Sort it out amongst yourselves, and remember that you can PM me your choice...

Avalanche

The Engineer: dig
JasonTandro: dig
Octo: dig

Party size: 3
Level: 4

Mythril shards if dig is successful: 31..62

Result: ambushed by a Castanets!

Progress:

I can scarcely believe it, but the party has been knocked out, despite just a 10% chance of it happening - and by the very same type of monster as The Returners!

Well, well. At the end of the first week of the event, only one player is left holding any Mythril. Looks like Starling has picked a good time to join in. Any more new players want to give it a go?

 

[Roger]

Let's go, Returners! Neither cloud nor squall can deter us! Only more betrayal by Claymore.

 

[Kuroto]

I'm going to...

*drum roll*

...DIG!

 

[Octo]

Bugger......I dunno what to do now...

*Octo went to Kalm and drowned her sorrows in the pub*

 

[Jason Tandro]

You see, I was not lying!

Damn... Well that was a fruitless week. Back in the hole i Go ASAP.

 

[Clement Rage]

Back into the fray! For truth, justice, and mythril!

 

[Starling]

I don't see the disadvantage to a larger party. Better to catch up to Claymore.

 

[Flintlock]

The disadvantage is that you have to split the Mythril more ways. The advantage is that you can survive more defections before having to worry about the Turks appearing.

 

[The Twilight Mexican]

I want to join up and dig, but I'd also like clarification about the randomness of the monsters.

I get that Random.org is used to determine the number of mythril shards found, but an explanation about what determines a monster appearance wasn't included.

 

[Flintlock]

It's also Random.org. For each party, I ask it for a number between 1 and 100. If the number is 1-10, a Crawler attacks. 11-20 is Castanets, 21-30 is Madouge and 31-40 is Ark Dragon. 41-50 is the Turks, even if they're no threat. 51-100 means the dig has succeeded, and if that happens, I generate the number of shards found separately.

 

[Starling]

Don't larger parties also yield more shards? At this point safety in numbers is clearly the way to go.

 

[The Twilight Mexican]

Thanks for the clarification.

 

[Flintlock]

Don't larger parties also yield more shards? At this point safety in numbers is clearly the way to go.

Barely. As I stated in my opening post, the shard formula is N+DL, where N is the number of miners, D is the day of the event and L is the level of the mine.

Let's take today as an example. D is 8 and L will be 1, regardless of how many people are in your party. In a three-player party, the range of shards will be from 3+(8*1) = 11 to twice that amount, 22, meaning that your individual share of the shards will be between 3 and 7. In a six-player party, the range of shards will be from 6+(8*1) = 14 to 28, meaning you will personally get between 2 and 4 shards.

The reason I included N in the formula was to make sure everyone got at least one shard in the first few days of the event. By this stage, however, DL is always likely to be bigger than N, dramatically so when you get further into the mine.

 

[Obsidian Fire]

Don't larger parties also yield more shards? At this point safety in numbers is clearly the way to go.

Yes and No. A larger party gives the chance for more shards to be found initially, but it also means that individual players will get less shards for themselves, while more shards are left behind at the level. Which means that leaving is a better strategy then staying after fewer levels.

Examples:

3 person party:

On the 2nd Day and 2nd level, the minimum number of shards the group can get is (3 + 2*2) = 7. The maximum number is 14. The amount of shards an individual player can get is anywhere from 2 to 4. The amount of shards left on any level will always be 0 to 2, and there's a 1/3 chance that 0 shards will be left. So there's not a very good reason for players to leave the party until several levels have leftover shards on them.

8 person party:

On the 2nd Day and 2nd level, the minimum number of shards the group can get is (8 + 2*2) = 12. The maximum number is 24. The amount of shards an individual player can get is anywhere from 1 to 3. The amout of shards left on any level will always be 0 to 7 and there's a 1/8 chance that 0 shards will be left. So leaving the party after the second level would be a great idea if the remaining shards is a high number.

Long story short, parties with fewer players will leave fewer shards on the levels and more shards in their pockets as the game plays. And leaving prematurely isn't as good of an idea as the odds of their being 0 shards on levels is higher.

Parties with more players will leave more shards behind and will have less shards in their pockets. Leaving after only a few levels is a very good idea as the odds of their being lots of shards on previous levels is good.

 

[Jason Tandro]

Flintlock:

Just wanna say I'm rather enjoying this. It's a great game of risk and deception which is way more than I thought one could achieve on a forum.

Nice work!

 

[Starling]

Best forum game I've seen so far was king of the hill. I look forward to seeing how this one plays out. It's pretty well thought out.